Your thinking out loud is pretty brilliant. While US intelligence insisted Russia would invade, I don't think they really thought Russia would invade. Honestly, I thought Russia had too much to lose by attacking Ukraine, but I was wrong.

I don't think Putin is insane or a genius, but I think he understood Russia's economic global position very well. He knew sanctions would rain down like mad, and he planned for them; he'd be an effing moron not to.

The Global South is fed-up with austerity and oppression, and US hegemony is in decline. Russia reached out to the nations burned by the US. Until recently, Cuba received a hefty subsidy, vaccines freely flowed to poor countries, and trade deals with Africa and Latin America offered an alternative (China is doing the same).

Sanctions hurt Americans, Europeans, and other nations, and the world faces food shortages. When people don't have enough food, uprisings will ensue, and governments will be ousted. Also, transporting natural gas is dangerous, and people know this. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a rebuttal to this grand idea...

The US overplayed its cards, and I'm afraid of what it will do to regain power, but I know it will stop at nothing to gain wealth and power. Ugh.